China in 2023: A Year of Living Dangerously

Now that China has emerged from two years of COVID lockdown, what can we expect in 2023 in terms of its domestic priorities and its international relationships, especially with the United States, Russia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific? Will the new leadership that emerged from the 20th Party Congress in October 2022 and the 14th National People’s Congress in March of this year be able to restore its reputation for competent governance? Will the economy again resume its role as one of the engines of global growth or see further slowdown and social unrest? Can China persuade other countries that it is a responsible caretaker of global security and trade norms or will it insist on transforming the rules of engagement? Will 2023 be a return to growth and a steady march toward parity with the United States or a year of living dangerously and risk taking?